If you feel like the world is changing faster than you can adapt, you’re not alone.
We are experiencing the fastest, broadest, most consequential reordering of politics, technology, and business in our lifetimes. Accenture reported the pace of change in business accelerated 183% between 2019-2024, and Gallup surveys show that 79% of employees report their organization has undergone a disruption in the last year.
The result is that uncertainty has become the emotional context of work, not just the operational. For many, work just feels heavier. We see it in the rising tide of employee stress and burnout and the decline in trust and engagement. And leaders are being asked to provide answers when they don’t readily exist. That’s the challenge of leading in uncertainty.
Although we can’t always control the amount and pace of disruption in our organizations, we can control our response to it. Here are four strategies we can employ to lead more effectively in uncertain times:
Build Trust and Psychological Safety
Trust and safety aren’t “nice-to-have” in uncertain times—they are the infrastructure that stabilizes people emotionally so that they can perform effectively.
Trust can become fragile during times of change, especially if leadership hasn’t done an effective job of building it beforehand. Uncertainty amplifies fear, and in the absence of trusted information and guidance from leaders, people fill in the gaps with their own stories that are often more negative than reality.
Although related, trust and psychological safety are two separate constructs. Trust can be defined as the willingness to be vulnerable to another’s actions based on perceptions of their ability, believability, connectedness, and dependability.
Ability refers to a person’s competence. A person is trustworthy when they have the expertise, knowledge, skills, and track record of results for their given position or role. Believability is a measure of a person’s integrity. Are they honest? Do they walk the talk? Do they treat people fairly? Connected leaders demonstrate care and concern for others. They foster trust by communicating openly and transparently, build rapport, and display an appropriate level of vulnerability with their people. Lastly, trustworthy leaders are dependable. They honor their commitments by being accountable, responsive, and doing what they say they will do.
Fear is the enemy of trust.
~Simple Truths of Leadership, Ken Blanchard & Randy Conley
Psychological safety, on the other hand, is a belief that it’s safe to take interpersonal risks like speaking up, offering dissenting points of view, or speaking truth to power, without fear of reprisal. While trust focuses on a person’s behavior, psychological safety focuses on one’s perceived level of risk. They are two sides of the same coin.
So, what are some actions leaders can take to build trust and psychological safety? Leaders can:
- Model behaviors that align with the ABCD’s of trust (Able, Believable, Connected, Dependable)
- Be consistent in words and actions
- Communicate frequently and transparently
- Inquire into the views of others
- Acknowledge emotions without judgment
- Solicit dissenting points of view
- Treat trust and psychological safety as strategic assets
Be a Sensemaker
Sensemaking is a term coined by Karl Weick in his book, Sensemaking in Organizations. It refers to how people “create reality” by retrospectively interpreting ambiguous cues and building a plausible story that they can act on.
Why is that important for leaders? Leaders need to take the lead in helping their people make sense of the uncertain environment they’re facing. We do that by asking questions like: What do we know? What don’t we know? What’s likely to change and what isn’t? What should we focus on right now?
It’s critical that leaders remember that this is something they do with people, and not to them. Leaders name the reality and then co-create the picture with their people. That involves framing a narrative that is focused on learning and adapting to what’s happening, and then constantly updating their strategy based on input from others. Sensemakers embrace the nuance and complexity of the environment and resist the temptation to oversimplify the situation by framing it as black and white.
People don’t describe what they see.
They see what they can describe.
~Vicki Halsey
Making sense of uncertainty requires leaders to communicate more, not less. It also requires that leaders pay particular attention to the emotional landscape of their teams and balance honest realism about risks with a hopeful tone for a purposeful path forward.
Provide Clarity in Uncertainty
Do you remember the days when “strategic planning” was considering where our organization might be in 5, 7, or 10 years? These days we’re lucky if our strategic plan is 1-2 years out!
We don’t need certainty to provide clarity. In the midst of uncertainty, people need focus. They need priorities. They need to know what “good” looks like right now, even if that definition is likely to change as circumstances evolve. One of the best ways to provide clarity is to anchor goals in values.
Values provide the why behind goals. The goal is how we’ll get something done, but the value speaks to why it’s important. The how can, and should, change as circumstances dictate, but the why remains constant. Values also guide decisions and create coherence across teams. They keep people rowing in the same direction. Goals will frequently change, but values remain constant.
A telling example comes from Brian Chesky, cofounder and CEO of Airbnb. At the start of 2020, he was preparing to take the company public in what was predicted to be one of the largest tech IPOs ever, valued at over $30 billion. But, when the Covid-19 pandemic hit, the company lost 80% of its revenue, and the IPO had to be postponed.
Chesky knew this would be a period of unprecedented uncertainty for the company. So, one of the first things he did was create a list of four guiding principles for himself: Act fast, preserve cash, act with all stakeholders in mind, and play to win the next travel season.
In a crisis, “you make principle decisions, not business decisions,” he said, reflecting on what he learned. A business decision is “a decision predicting the best possible outcome. A principle decision is irrespective of the outcome.” These became Chesky’s anchors as he steered the company through 2020 to position it for success when the travel industry recovered. In December 2020, Airbnb went public, with a market capitalization of $86.5 billion after the first day of trading.
Leaders can provide clarity by narrowing the set of priorities, setting shorter-term goals with clear outcomes, and having regular check-ins to recalibrate. Name what has changed, and just as importantly, what hasn’t. And define what a good job looks like so that team members aren’t guessing at performance standards.
Adapt Your Leadership Approach
This is where many capable leaders get stuck. They’re consistent, experienced, and well intentioned, so they double-down on what’s always worked. The challenge is that uncertainty changes the context. What worked for you in the past when times were stable may not work now.
Adapting your leadership style is not changing who you are. It’s changing the way you show up.
Blanchard’s research shows that 54% of managers are only comfortable using a single style of leadership. Uncertain times require that leaders flexibly adapt their style to match the needs of the situation, the goals, and the people responsible for executing them.
There are many variables to consider when assessing the situation and the goal. What’s the pace of change? Risk? Urgency? Complexity? Is the work environment remote, hybrid, or in-person?
When assessing the individual, we have to know their level of competence on the task, their motivation and confidence in achieving the goal, and their temperament. We also have to be mindful of cognitive and emotional overload, sense of overwhelm, or change fatigue.
Once we take all that into account, then we choose the leadership style that’s going to be the most effective match for the individual. If the individual is still in learning mode, they’ll need more of a directing or coaching leadership style. If they can operate independently but lack confidence to fully own it, they need more of a supportive style. And if they’re highly competent and committed, they need the leader to delegate and get out of their way.
There’s no one best leadership style. The best style is a one that’s a match for the situation and the person.
If you think you’re leading but no one is following,
you’re simply out for a walk.
~Ken Blanchard
Leading Through Uncertainty
Leaders have a unique and privileged role in today’s uncertain world. They have the power to profoundly shape people’s lives for the better.
Gallup’s Global Leadership Report: What Followers Want highlights four core needs of every employee:
- Hope
- Trust
- Compassion
- Stability
As it relates to having a sense of hope for the future, the number one influence for employees was a family member.
Guess what the second most powerful influence was? Their manager.
In times of uncertainty, people are looking to their leaders for guidance. They’re looking for hope.
They don’t need all the answers, and they don’t expect their leaders to have them. But they are looking for direction forward. They’re looking for leaders to chart a path forward to a hopeful future.
You can be that leader by building trust and safety, making sense of the current reality, providing clarity on priorities, and adapting your leadership approach to meet the needs of your team members. That’s what leading in uncertainty looks like.
For a deeper dive into this topic, watch the recording of my webinar, Leading Through Uncertainty: What People Need Most from Their Leaders
